The Rise of Reform UK and the Fragmentation of Traditional Party Politics

As Reform UK continues to climb in the polls, political commentator Frank Gelli offers a sharp critique of what he calls the “Farage phenomenon” — a movement he believes is fueled less by policy and more by prejudice. Gelli argues that Reform UK’s growing influence stems from xenophobia, cultural resentment, and disillusionment with Britain’s two main parties, rather than genuine ideological renewal. With both Labour and the Conservatives struggling to counter Reform’s populist appeal — and at times echoing its rhetoric — Gelli warns that the UK’s political landscape is entering a period of deep fragmentation and polarisation. While he doubts that electoral reform or violent upheaval will follow, he sees the rise of Reform UK as a symptom of wider voter alienation, exposing the fragility of traditional party loyalties and the limitations of Britain’s first-past-the-post system.

1- What specific factors are driving Reform UK’s recent rise in the polls — is it primarily economic dissatisfaction, cultural anxiety, or disillusionment with the two main parties?

The despicable Farage Party, Reform UK, (I prefer to call it ‘Deform’) owes its drive in the polls to multiple factors but the key ones are xenophobia and racism. Hatred of the Other, of anyone who is perceived as different in race or religion, is what motivates Deform’s supporters. Sad to say this but I believe it is the truth.

2- To what extent is Reform UK’s growth a protest vote — and could it realistically convert into long-term electoral power or parliamentary presence?

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. We have to wait and see. I have no crystal ball but I suspect at the next election they will gain many seats. To call it a protest vote is too flattering, unless ‘protest’ means stupidity. Again, it is prejudice and hatred which drives the Farage brigade. Probably also nostalgia for a lost British Empire, slumbering in some lazy British minds. Pathetic!

3 – How are Labour and the Conservatives responding to the Reform UK threat — and are they risking legitimacy by echoing its rhetoric?

The Tories are frantically trying to match Deform’s vile rhetoric but they are led by an utterly useless leader, Kemi Badenoch. It likely that the next Tory leader will be Robert Jenrick, a real reactionary, but it will make only limited difference. Labour is led by a totally dull and uncharismatic man, Keir Starmer. I see no real chance that Labour can stand up to Deform. Both Tories and Labour are using the wrong tactics in opposing Deform. They should ridicule them more.

4- Does the rise of Reform UK signal a deeper fragmentation of British political identity — and what does this mean for traditional party loyalty and voter alignment?

The mood in the country is generally negative and some political fragmentation may take place. It has to do with the rising cost of living and the poor state of economy. Politics will reflect that. To what extent, again, I am not able to predict. We’ll have to wait and see.

5- How might the first-past-the-post electoral system limit or enable Reform UK’s influence, and should this reignite the debate on electoral reform in Britain?

The first-past-the-post system ensures a certain degree of political clarity and stability. I see no likelihood of a change because it would not be in the interest of Labour or Tories. The Liberals are the only ones asking for it but they don’t matter much. If Deform does really well at the elections – may God not allow it! – there may be pressure for a change. I hope not.

6- What lessons, if any, can be drawn from similar right-populist movements in Europe and the US — and is the UK headed toward a more polarised political future?

Probably Britain’s politics and society will get more polarised because racists and reactionary want that to happen and they stir up hatred and violence. However, the Brits are generally opposed to violent changes so I doubt anything radical will happen. Not all populist and right-wing movements’ rise result in sharper conflicts. The example of Giorgia Meloni’s party in Italy, ‘Fratelli d’Italia’ , does not suggest that all populist parties in government will threaten general stability. Meloni is a pragmatist and basically a centrist. Other far right parties, in France, for example, may be a different affair.