Holyrood Election in 2026: Economic Pressure and the Renewed Push for a Scottish Independence Referendum

Scotland has started the year 2026 with a lot of tension, and people are talking about what the future holds for Scotland. The First Minister, John Swinney, who is also the leader of the Scottish National Party, is speaking his mind clearly now. He is talking about Scotland being completely separate from London. In the past, people thought about independence as something to do with who they are and where they come from.

Now the Scottish National Party is saying that Scotland needs to be independent because of money problems. This is a time for this debate because people are getting ready to vote in the Holyrood Election in 2026. The Scottish National Party is making it sound like Scotland has to be independent, for reasons. This article looks at how money problems, people voting, and politicians being worried are affecting the movement for independence and the Scottish independence referendum.

Independence as an Economic Argument

John Swinney says the economy is the important thing. He thinks Scotland is not doing well because big decisions about money are made in London. This means people in London decide things like taxes, what our money is worth and who we trade with. John Swinney says this makes it hard for the people in charge in Holyrood to help poor people. He says this is all connected to Brexit.

Since 2016, the UK has not been doing well with money. It has been growing very slowly, usually less than 1 percent each year. John Swinney says Scotland is suffering because of decisions that Scotland did not agree with. The economy of Scotland is being affected by the decisions made in London, and John Swinney thinks this is not fair to Scotland. In this story, independence is something that helps people survive.

Cost of Living and Political Messaging

People in Scotland are paying a lot for energy bills, food and housing, as shown by rising fuel poverty, with an estimated 34% of households spending a large share of their income on keeping their homes warm. Swinney says Westminster is to blame for these problems. He thinks Scotland should get money from the oil in the North Sea. The Scottish National Party wants to help people who are struggling to make ends meet.

They think that if they talk about problems, they can get more people to support the Scottish National Party, not just the people who already agree with them. The cost-of-living crisis is an issue for the Scottish National Party. The argument is that Holyrood needs to be in control so it can respond quickly and take strong action.

Holyrood Election in 2026 and Electoral Risks

The Holyrood Election in 2026 is a deal for the Scottish National Party. The Scottish National Party is still doing well in the polls. Some surveys say the Scottish National Party is a little bit ahead in some areas. Moreover, Reform UK is getting more support because they are saying things that people who are unhappy with the system want to hear. This is taking votes away from the parties.

People are upset with the parties, so they are looking at Reform UK. The Labour party, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats seem to be working better. They do not have a team, but they are still helping each other. This means that the Scottish National Party might lose some seats because of tactical voting.

Nationalism, Populism, and Voter Fatigue

Swinney’s language has some strong nationalistic and populist parts to it. He often talks about “London control” and “economic drag”. This way of speaking can really get his loyal voters excited. However, some people in Scotland are getting a bit fed up with talking about the constitution. If you look at the numbers from polls, you can see that the number of people who want Scotland to be independent has often hovered around 50 percent or more, with a June 2025 poll showing approximately 52 percent support for independence among likely voters. For a lot of people, things like schools and healthcare and how much money they make are more important than what flag they have and what their borders are. The Holyrood Election in 2026 is going to be a test for the people of Scotland.

Scottish Independence Referendum as a Political Tool

The Scottish independence referendum is really important to the Scottish National Party’s plan. Swinney says this referendum is a thing to do, and it needs to happen. He thinks Scotland should get to decide what it wants to do because of Brexit. There are still some big problems with this. The government in Westminster is still in charge of how this works. If the UK does not say it is okay, then there will be problems in court.

This means the Scottish Parliament does not have a lot of choices. Some people say the Scottish National Party is promising something that it cannot make happen soon. On the hand, people who support the Scottish National Party say that they need to keep pushing for this. The Scottish independence referendum is something that people are always talking about.

Economic Costs and Fiscal Reality

The cost of something is often not talked about. When you think about Scotland becoming independent, it could be really expensive. Some people have done studies. They think it could cost Scotland a lot more than Brexit cost the United Kingdom. Scotland would need to set up systems for money borders and trading with other countries. Now the money that the public gets comes from all over the UK.

If Scotland becomes independent, it will have to find a way to get that money. This will not happen overnight. The people who are not sure about independence and the businesses are worried about what might happen. They do not like the uncertainty of it all. Swinney says that even though it might be tough at first, Scotland will be off in the long run with Scottish independence.

Fragmented Political Landscape

Scotland’s political situation is really complicated now. Reform UK is trying to get the attention of people who feel like nobody is listening to them. The Labour party wants to get on its feet after doing poorly for a long time. The Conservatives still have a lot of say in the countryside. All of this is putting a lot of pressure on the Scottish National Party. Just getting the most votes might not be enough for them to have a win. The election for Holyrood in 2026 will probably come down to how many people vote and which parties win the seats. Even small changes could make a difference in who is in charge. When things are like this, using words can be a gamble. Each statement may get one group of people on your side.

Strategic Framing of Independence

The Scottish National Party has changed the way it talks about independence. It does not focus much on identity as it used to. The Scottish National Party is now more concerned with economics and governance. John Swinney says that the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood does not have power under the system we have now. He believes that if we really want to make a difference, we need to be in control.

The Scottish National Party is trying to attract voters who think carefully about these issues. This also means that people expect things to happen quickly. If the Scottish National Party says that independence is very important, it will be hard to explain why it is taking so long. The Scottish National Party does not see the Scottish independence referendum as something that might happen in the near future.

Long-Term Consequences

What happens after the election in Scotland will matter to people outside of Scotland. If the Scottish National Party gets a lot of votes, it may make the government in London think again. If the Scottish National Party does not do very well, it could mean that Scotland’s independence project is put on hold for a long time. Whatever happens, it will affect politics in the United Kingdom. The debate in Scotland is about issues like who gets to make decisions and control the economy. The election for the Scottish Parliament in 2026 will show whether people’s minds can be changed by talking about money. It will also show how much risk people are willing to take in order to make a change.