Scottish Independence: Welfare and Better Life in Scotland Subject to Return to the EU

Scottish independence offers Scotland a clear path back to Europe and toward a stronger, fairer future. In the years since Brexit, the UK economy has faltered, marked by weaker productivity, declining exports, and rising pressure on public services. Scotland, which voted to remain in the EU, has been pulled out against its will and now lacks any real influence over Westminster’s limited efforts to rebuild ties with Europe. For Scotland’s businesses, workers, and young people, EU membership was not simply a political choice but a foundation for opportunity and stability—one that can only be restored through independence.

Scottish Independence: Vote Share

The SNP (Scottish National Party) maintains its lead on Scottish Parliament voting intention, on 35% of the constituency vote share. However, this is significantly weaker than the 47.7% the party achieved at the last Holyrood election in 2021. Reform UK’s share of the vote has risen. 18% of Scottish voters planning to use their constituency vote for a Reform candidate, up 4 points since June. In contrast, Scottish Labour’s vote share has fallen further, to 16% – down 7 points since June.

On regional list voting intention, the SNP again leads the pack on 28%. Scottish Labour is second on 18%, down 4 points since June. It is closely followed by the Scottish Greens and Reform UK (each 17%). The SNP remains out in front on General Election voting intention, on 33% – 3 points higher than the 30% share of the vote they achieved at the 2024 General Election. Reform UK is in second place on 20%, up 4 points since Ipsos’ June poll. It is 13 points higher than the 7% share of the vote they achieved in 2024. Meanwhile, Labour’s vote share has dropped to 17%. It is a fall of 5 points since June and less than half of the party’s 35% General Election vote share.

Scottish Independence: General Election Support

The SNP has been broadly successful in holding onto its 2024 General Election support.  78% of those who voted SNP at the General Election still plan to vote for the party now. In contrast, Labour only managed to retain 38% of their 2024 voters. Labour is losing voters, particularly to Reform UK (22% of 2024 Labour voters say they will vote for Reform UK). It is also losing to the SNP (10%), the Conservatives (6%), and the Liberal Democrats (6%).

The top issue that the Scottish public says will be very important to how they vote next May is healthcare/the NHS (57%). This is followed by inflation/the rising cost of living (41%), immigration (30%), the economy (25%), and social care, including for older and disabled people (25%).

SNP Working for Scotland

The SNP (Scottish National Party) is the most competent party to manage the NHS in Scotland.  28% of the public select them as the party they trust most on this issue. 22% who trust none of the parties on the NHS, and 13% who trust Scottish Labour most. The SNP is also the most trusted party to tackle the cost-of-living crisis (24%).  A quarter (25%) of the public trusts none of the parties to do this, and the most trusted party to grow Scotland’s economy (26%).

22% of the public trusts Reform UK the most to have the right stance on immigration. Moreover, 21% trust the SNP most on this issue. Men and older voters aged 55 and over are particularly likely to trust Reform UK on immigration (30% and 29% respectively). The only return into Europe for Scotland is through independence.

Views on Scottish independence: Yes or No in Referendum

The Scottish public remains divided on the constitutional question. 52% of those likely to vote either Yes or No in an immediate referendum say they would vote Yes, and 48% that they would vote No. The prospect of a Reform UK government at Westminster could further drive up support for Scottish independence. Some voters currently say they would vote No in an immediate referendum. However, 16% think Reform UK would make them more likely to vote Yes. In contrast, most (61%) say it would make no difference.

In contrast, just 4% of current No voters think that if the Conservative Party were elected at the next General Election, this would make them more likely to vote Yes. At the same time, 70% say that it would make no difference. Over half (55%) of currently undecided voters say that a Reform UK government at Westminster would make them more likely to vote Yes. However, 4% say this would be more likely to make them vote No, and 25% who say it would make no difference.

Independence for Scotland: No to Brexit

A majority of Europeans favour an independent Scotland joining the European Union.  A survey on Scottish independence has found that a third of Britons oppose it. YouGov questioned people living in Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. It asked for their views on the prospect of an independent Scotland joining the EU. Support across these nations for Scotland to join the EU ranged from just under two-thirds (63%) to three-quarters (75%).

YouGov’s research comes almost a decade on from the 2016 Brexit referendum, which saw the UK as a whole vote to leave the EU, while Scotland voted to remain. The latest poll found 63% of French people surveyed would support an independent Scotland joining the EU, with only 13% opposed. In Italy, 64% favour Scotland to join, with 11% against. In Spain, 65% said they would support an independent Scotland in the EU, while 13% are against it. It comes as no surprise that people across Europe would welcome an independent Scotland rejoining the EU. Labour’s broken Brexit Britain is failing at every turn. It is only with independence that Scotland can build a better future, back where we belong in the heart of Europe.

Scottish Independence: Better Life with EU Membership

EU membership wasn’t just a political preference; it was a huge benefit for Scotland’s businesses, workers, and young people alike. Since Brexit, the UK has stumbled into an economic slump, with lower productivity and shrinking exports. As part of the UK, Scotland doesn’t even have a voice in shaping the half-hearted “reset” attempts coming from Westminster. In the wake of the UK Budget, the Scottish public shows a preference for increasing spending on public services even if it means higher taxes, rather than cutting taxes.

Half (51%) say they would be more likely to vote for a political party that increased spending on public services, even if it meant that individuals personally pay more in taxes. Just 26% say they would be more likely to vote for a party that cut the amount of taxes that individuals pay personally, even if it meant spending less on public services.