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The UK Concerns over Ukraine-Russia Conflict under Trump’s Leadership: The Unknown Future

Donald Trump will return to the White House in January. The reactions to his return have been contradictory, including

The UK Concerns over Ukraine-Russia Conflict under Trump’s Leadership: The Unknown Future

Donald Trump will return to the White House in January. The reactions to his return have been contradictory, including Starmer’s hearty congratulation and Badenoch’s awkward comments. The Ukraine-Russia Conflict under Trump’s leadership worries the UK, as he promised to end the war. However, he may force Ukraine to accept some unwanted conditions.

Trump promised to end the Ukraine-Russia war in one day by brokering a deal between Putin and Zelensky. However, he did not provide any more clarifications. It worries that the  UK will lose its power and territory to Russia. Therefore,  the UK declared it would support Ukraine by giving millions of pounds, even if the US does not continue supporting Ukraine.

Trump: A hearty or An Awkward Welcoming 

Following a historic comeback last week, Donald Trump will return to the White House in January—Keir Starmer affirming his “hearty congratulations” to the president-elect. Kemi Badenoch brought to light awkward and contradictory comments from the Labour front benches to Trump during her first appearance as Conservative leader.

Jabs from both sides have resurfaced following Trump’s victory. Foreign Secretary David Lammy called Trump a ‘neo-nazi sympathising sociopath’. Whilst Team Trump filed a legal complaint against the “far-left” party after a report of Labour staff supporting Kamala Harris’ election bid. Of course, this is the customary hypocrisy of international relations. Still, given the UK’s complex economic condition after Brexit and Tory austerity, its government will be eager to try for a “special relationship“. It includes exemption from the swingeing tariffs with which Trump threatens to hit Europe.

End Ukraine War: Trump Promised

European leaders alike have been bracing for the impact of a Trump victory and its ramifications on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. A key campaign promise from the Former President was to end the war ‘before he took office’.  It will be brokering a deal between Putin and Zelensky to reach peace in the region. The Ukraine-Russia Conflict under Trump’s leadership has provoked some discussions about whether he is going to end the war overnight.

During the US election campaign, Trump said he would find a solution to end the war “within a day”. However, he did not explain how he would do so. His vice-president nominee, JD Vance, has vociferously opposed providing more funds to support Ukraine.

End Ukraine war: Trump Promised, the UK is Worried

Treasury minister Darren Jones has said the UK government’s commitment to Ukraine is “resolute”. However. There are fears that incoming US President Donald Trump could push the country into giving up territory to Russia.

Jones told BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, “Ukraine should be able to recover its country as it was previously structured. There shouldn’t be an element of conceding to illegal invasions from Russia”.

The UK Stands  Supporting  Ukraine

Jones said about the UK government: “Our commitment to Ukraine as a country here in the UK is resolute. We continue to support Ukraine with billions of pounds of funding annually. Moreover, we provide support from our armed forces in line with our commitments through NATO.”

The UK still respects Ukraine’s desire to reclaim territories such as Crimea. Jones said: “That is the basis on which the UK operates.” Dame Priti, appointed as the shadow foreign secretary earlier this week, agreed Ukraine should not have to concede Crimea. She added: “We’ve been unequivocal as Conservatives in government… we stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine.”

Ukraine-Russia Conflict under Trump’s Leadership: Trump’s View

Trump repeatedly said he could end the almost three-year-long war “within 24 hours” without providing details. Experts expect him to push for a quick resolution.

“Trump will spend the first few weeks, months. He pushes Ukraine to accept a deal that Europe wouldn’t like to see it accept,” Evie Aspinall told the ABC. Ukraine may be forced to. We rely on the US to support Ukraine and European security in general.” Long-standing concerns exist that a second Trump presidency would force Ukraine into an unfavourable peace deal. It involves giving up land occupied by Russia.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict under Trump’s Leadership: the UK must Pay the Price:

In any event, Trump’s incoming presidency will pressure Starmer to prioritise defence spending. Previously committing to 2.5% of GDP on defence, Starmer still needs to clarify when the UK will meet this target. In addition, the government now has a renewed focus on defence. A reduction in US support for Ukraine would have profound implications for Europe. Countries like the UK would be under pressure to fill the funding gap. Moreover, European leaders are acutely aware of the potential fallout.

The genuine possibility that the US pulls all support for Ukraine will undoubtedly stretch Starmers’ defence commitments to the brink. With last month’s budget raising taxes by £40bn, Starmer will have to either realign his spending commitments or re-evaluate British support for Ukraine. However, without US support, Ukraine won’t be able to fend off the Russian threat under current levels of European support.

No Trade-off: the UK does not Spend More on Defending

The Ukraine-Russia Conflict Under Trump’s Leadership will force the UK to pay more to support Ukraine. However, Jones said he would not commit to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence by the end of the current parliament. He said security and defence were priorities, which meant “trade-offs” in other areas.

Adm Sir Tony Radakin told Sky News: “Today, we’re spending 2.3%. The question is how you spend that money, but defending the country is non-negotiable. That is not a trade-off; the trade-off is then with other areas of public spending. Now, are we protecting the country Today? We are. Do we want to make sure we’re hitting our Nato obligations? We do.

The Store for UK-US Relations is Closing:

It is no secret that a Trump victory is the less favoured option by Starmer and those sitting on the government benches. However, the two are far more ideologically opposed than his Conservative predecessors. The recent charm offensive by Labour frontbenchers towards the president-elect has indicated the critical implications that Trump’s victory may have on UK-US relations.

What is clear is that the incoming president will undoubtedly place much more pressure on Starmer. The outgoing Biden administration declared its unwavering commitment to Ukraine. However, it may well be that Trump ceases military aid to Ukraine altogether, at odds with Starmer’s “iron-clad” support.

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William Barnes

Freelance journalist | Academic researcher

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